Predictions: Oscars 2018

Given that the Oscars have ended (and what an ending), naturally the next step is for me to foolhardily predict what will be nominated next year. Since most of these movies have not been seen and only small details are known about them, who knows how close I’ll be. BUT why not try? (I’ve got to find some way to be invested, right? Since obviously without something like this I’d give up and never watch movies until the Oscar nominees are announced.)

BEST PICTURE

Get Out

Logan

Mother!

Mary Magdalene

Downsizing

Call Me By Your Name

Untitled Detroit Riots Kathryn Bigelow Project

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara

These are a mix of 2 films that I’ve seen (and LOVE) and then 8 that I think have a decent shot at being nominated based on descriptions, trailers, involved parties, etc. Some of this is stuff that I hope gets nominated and obviously this is all very far in advance and therefore shooting in the dark (with some insight from obsessive movie watching and reading about film). Do I think Logan will get nominated? Not really. Do I think it would be deserving of a nomination? Absolutely. I’m a bit more optimistic about Get Out, which might have enough political capital to push it into the field (and is absolutely deserving of award attention, less likely here, but more probable in the original screenplay category).

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War

John Boyega, Untitled Detroit Riots Kathryn Bigelow Project

Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Daniel Day-Lewis, Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project

Just look at a picture of Oldman as Churchill and tell me he won’t be nominated. This could be a breakout year and roles for John Boyega and Chadwick Boseman. Also, it’s never a good idea to bet against award attention for Daniel Day-Lewis.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!

Allison Williams, Get Out

Brie Larson, The Glass Castle

Rooney Mara, Mary Magdalene

Most of these actresses have been in awards conversations before, so nothing too surprising there (I mean, it’ll depend on which performances are solid and which aren’t, since there’s loads of other worthy actresses in stuff coming out this year that I didn’t put here). Allison Williams is an outlier and not a safe bet by any means, but she delivers a phenomenal performance and deserves attention.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Darren Aronofsky, Mother!

Katheryn Bigelow, Untitled Detroit Riots Kathryn Bigelow Project

Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled

Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

Mostly names that have been in conversations before and are deserving of attention. Nolan could squeeze in here easily and Peele is, again, not a likely contender, but so worthy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix, Mary Magdalene

Patrick Stewart, Logan

Oscar Isaac, Suburbicon

Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle

Cillian Murphy, Dunkirk

This was a far tougher race to predict and I totally guessed (since it’s less clear what roles are main or supporting and I have no idea what’s going to be good, obviously). BUT Patrick Stewart (who probably won’t be nominated) acts the hell out of his role in Logan and deserves an Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Elle Fanning, The Beguiled

Shohreh Aghdashloo, The Promise

Michelle Williams, Wonderstruck

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Dafne Keen, Logan

Basically the same as Best Supporting Actor, with Dafne Keen also delivering a remarkably nuanced performance (for anyone, especially for a child) in Logan. Mary J. Blige’s role in Mudbound received rave reviews at Sundance.

BONUS FILMS

The Death of Stalin

Mudbound

Song to Song

Untitled Asgar Farhadi Project

Murder on the Orient Express

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Battle of the Sexes

Marshall

The Glass Castle

The Greatest Showman

The Mountain Between Us

The Mercy

The Promise

The Snowman

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Blade Runner 2049

Beauty and the Beast

Baby Driver

Suburbicon

Other movies that are coming out this year that may be in the awards conversation and may not, but that I think are worth keeping on your radar if you want to be informed for awards season. Also, things that I find interesting to some level or another. Especially Suburbicon, which sounds like all my favorite things combined together (Clooney directed, Coen written, starring Matt Damon, Oscar Isaac, and Josh Brolin in 1950s suburbia-set crime mystery with murder, blackmail, revenge, and betrayal? How could I not watch it?).

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